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ICE US Coffee C Futures - May 25 (KCc5)

ICE
Symbol
Exchange
Currency
KCDerivedUSD
KCc1ICEUSD
KCc2ICEUSD
KCc3ICEUSD
KCc4ICEUSD
KCc5ICEUSD
KCc6ICEUSD
KCc7ICEUSD
Currency in USD
Disclaimer
219.35
-1.80(-0.81%)
Delayed Data

US Coffee C Futures Discussions

Contango is back just ahead of FND.
why is this falling so deep? any big news?
Manipulation - fundamentals are very strong. - Just shaking weak longs out of the trees, IMO.
I dont like that aut. machines Bots buying/selling.
They make investing to be boring and with no hope.
do they make profit?
They make us to fall from the tree. And I was happy collecting grains of coffe.
Price-following algorithms are merciless but also bottomlessly stupid. ;)
Everyone heard the rumors, now expecting more confirmations or opposite. And 240 remains important level - has been tested 8 times since 2021 :) (monthly basis).
Also, it is not that big of an indicator :) but: harvest is 30% done and progressing good (by Safras) but you don't hear comments about amazing crop. Actually, you never heard it since the beginning of the harvest. But very early spring there were quite some comments (mostly A related, but R as well) that it's gonna be very good one :). It seems that triangle is building on weekly, to be completed and resolved (up or down) from end of June to mid of July. At that time the scale of the drop will be considered for sure: if it's big or not so :)...
New system, buy on Monday (Sunday), sell on Friday, at least for a few weeks.
COT reports bullish, looking for ATH by EOM
StoneX lowers their forecast for Vietnam 2024-25 crop to just 23.3M bags
You see the picture... Extent matters for sure and we'll know it soon. In some areas flowering has already started :), it is not widespread, just single comments up to yesterday :), but it may become widespread as the issue was widespread. If true - it will already indicate potential problems for OFF 25/26 crop, and ... practically globally :). Not devastation, just reduced yield, not necessarily in a big way, but reduced. Not a good sign... (Developing under suboptimal conditions also means that developing stages fall on not traditional :) weather pattern, which for ages was supporting the development in specific region.)
It is serious indeed as aligning of development stages with traditional weather pattern provides kinda optimal application of ferts, etc what directly affects the yield and not just yield. For high density patterns/super productive clones it has triple importance as it not just provides good yield but also supports the health of the trees. What means that in a less cooperative conditions it is not just yield that suffers, but also tree resistance vs pests, fungus, etc - and higher infestation will mean a bit :) more lower yield... :)
Distracting factor during those high temps waves was the fact that soil moisture in many areas/irrigated farms was OK and trees have been green. But as studies shown, the effect is quite damaging no matter what the soil moisture level is. Drought conditions, if present at the same time, just amplify the effect. What implies, that for the areas where heat waves were accompanied by dry spells, the effect should be bigger --- a bit more lower yield.
DXY, FND, bond yields. Everything was today against coffee bulls ;)
Wait and see the beginning of the week. Let's see whether it confirms or not. Bullish here.
Dollar did it all. Look how was the market today.
COT reports in 2 hours will tell us exactly what we need to know
It seems that both, commercial/non commercial have increased (approx. same % than last week) in the same way ?
Robert is right... you would only see what's prevalent early in the week.. and what happened early in the week would be totally turned 180 on Thursday and friday
If I'm not wrong that's bullish.
I was planning to average up from 237.. I was only able to sell one batch at 237.. didn't think it will tank this fast.. anyway I'm closing shorts today.. 237 to 224.. cheers.. you should do the same if you're shorting..
Congrats to all those buying at the low.
it will go up strong like cocoa.
Dreams
is a good mark of coffee.
it's going directly to 200
It will rebound
What the caffee market indicates. Otherwise it would be strange.
hello mr.Jonh
Where is it going?
south
Theres a road to north. The right signal takes to right and up.
Cocoa yesterday +5.04%.
Today -10%
What a surprise. I always thought there is no fraud here.
They talk to them :) :) :). My G-Grandma used to have goats. I liked to talk to them while being a kid :). I thought they are interested in communication or to listen my stories :) . Then she told me they listen because they know treat is coming after. I got very depressed :) :) :)... I thought I had a talent to talk to goats :)...
Short Dude. Within first week of June 80 countries have broken their records: June vs June in a past or all time. Some w-guys say that in the climatic history there was nothing like that ... My question: You read such narration, you know that at some point it's gonna end, on the magazines covers :) indicator basis it suggests that top is in the making and cooling will start right after. HOW do you see the transition that is coming: SWIFT or SOFT ? :)
SE Asia Heat Waves: Records have been falling every day for about 500 days and are continuing. All this is based on stations data. No fantasy land... Oceania is not far behind :). They produce coffee. Can super crop emerge in this conditions ? Let's say, stations are not in the fields. But it's a pattern... Hardly it may suggest a super crop in this/next year...
There is an opinion that R is in a blue sky territory :).
FND soon. Rally should start after FND
incredible how the funds are sofisticated ..look at the charts and drops where they starts and when they finished .. incredible
Short Dude. 240 is very important level on weekly :). And it will take time to digest... If rumors are true to reasonable extent, conservatively sieve+cup issue may produce :) 5mb A, add to this 2 - 3mb from ES R and you'll get 7-8mb, make it 5mb for simplicity - you'll get 5mb drop instead of promised 5mb increase, huge level of confusion, automatic projection for other origins and if all that will not create a panic narration, I'll reduce my personal coffee consumption drastically :).
5mb drop will make ending stocks 24/25, projected to be 3.5mb paper null or, in real terms, very very small - close to zero. Also consider, that if true - Brazil never dealt with such a quality (cup) issue in its modern history (A).
Short Dude. Revista's publication is, probably, first official :) coffee media comment, stating the facts but not projecting... Two things out of it: 1) it came came way before 1/2 the harvest is completed , what may :) imply that: a) Revista doesn't want to give away all the clicks to Volcafe :); b) harvest goes a bit quicker than usually; c) problem is real as it becoming obvious already at this stage; 2) if all this will be :) proven applicable to El Rei Do Cafe, will it be immediately extrapolated on other, not so advanced origins that have been affected in similar way ? (Actually, almost of them...)
48C was recorded yesterday in Oaxaca. Station, that recorded, is not at coffee farm, but it gives a clue what's going on there... It should be close to its end, but many trees are already stressed, so any few days/weeks more may add to the damage in non-linear fashion (they will add :)). Yield will suffer.. and possibly :) not for just one season... :) :) :)
***** Almost all of the origins have been affected: CA, M, Asia, Oceania, India, Caribbean,...)
A bit more unknowns: 20/21 drought and frost produced substantial damage to some trees. The fact was recorded and reflected by production numbers in 21/22, 22/23. Some trees have been replanted but most likely not all of them. Drought effects may last up to 5 years easy as studies shown. If to consider, that 23/24 high temp issue somehow :) affected those trees (that survived drought/frost and have been not replanted) , the yield of those trees may disappoint for next few years without any problems or they may be considered for replanting, etc. In any case, if true - it will affect 25/26 and 26/27 crops. :)
From a mouth of a coffee roaster : I used to drink a lot of coffee. Now although I am in possession of a lot of coffee bags, I've cut my coffee consumption in half. It's gone mad. What do you guys think ?
260 looks like sure target now
where are you seeing the coffee arabica proces during this year ?
i am not coffee expert but acording to chart and everything is pumping hard this year so its possible
Last post from Cafeicultura on Twitter. Huge quality problem with current crop. 30% more beans are needed to fulfill 60kg bag. Wow
So, narration is changing ? :) :) :) Comments are problem is widespread, not just one area ... Perfectly fits the studies :) :) :).
Initial comments from many were pointing to 10 - 15% drop due to size/weight. But size size/weight is not the only problem - taste quality is gonna be next. :)
If cupping will will confirm rumors :), ICE inflow will be affected what will add a bit of fire :). Averaged rumors about quality issues (A) from many areas have been pointing to bigger problem than size/weight ...
Robusta at ATH again. Soon more expensive than Arabica? Arabica should catch up?
Volcafe created some real confusion :) ? In relation to Brazil, some could have start to assume a real drop for R in ES, 20% or so... Would correlate well with drop in 15/16, 16/17 years on drought in SE Brazil and Super El Nino 15/16. R production in ES in 15/16 was 24 percent lower vs 14/15, in 16/17 production was 30 lower than in 15/16 and 49% lower than in 14/15. Many have been comparing 15/16 El Nino with 23/24 El Nino, not like 23/24 replicated 15/16, but by many metrics it was similar... It took 3 years for R in ES to get back to the level from which it dropped...
ES, R: 13/14 - 12.3mb, 14/15 - 13.10mb, 15/16 - 9.9mb, 16/17 - 6.7mb, 17/18 - 7.2mb, 18/19 - 10.9mb, 19/20 - 12.9mb, USDA. Drop was related to drought in SE Brazil and Strong El Nino 15-16.
The road back to 12.9mb (13/14 and 14/15 pre-El Nino levels) was not very fast... What begs the question about production in 25/26 MY :).
I suggest you guys check Vicente Zotti on twitter... he has very interesting and unbiased tweets...
Arabica: 34.870, Conilon: 20.293, numbers from his twitter.
Joke ?
No, not a joke. This what Vicente Zotti published after crop tour at the time and it is still open for public in his tweeter, what implies that this is still his view at 23/24 crop :). Yes, it is for 23/24MY, not for 24/25.
...
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