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Carlos Alemparte
4 hours ago
Check at google scfinew, it is the Shangai Containerized Freight Index, where you can see the SPOT price for container marine shipping from Shangai, the biggest and more important chinese port for containers.
This week the near vertical price slope overburned the maximun prices at 31 January 2024. When you call your chinese FOB provider, he tells you from 2 weeks ago NOT FREE available container space until long JUNE,
the only solution is paying a premiun to displace other container out of the ship, and a lot of people is paying to get the container for July. This is making price HOTer each week we wait to get marine liner space
from Shangai to Europe or USA. Xeneta, freightos and drewry have delayed price signals for Wall Street smart boy giving 5$ target for ZIM stock past month and 50$ next month. Not 5, not 50$ also, but we can see 25$
so fast as next tuesday on results for Q1 and guidance for Q2 with prices burning up in may. Lots of new ships arrivals for ZIM in 2024, a big problem in 2023, but just now ... more ships and more money.
with these prices for TEUs where one year ago it was seeming burning the 3000 M$ from 2021 and 2022 so fast, with old and new ships losing money together, now, all them winning. New rented ships coming to ZIM in 2024
are most of them using GNL, not low sulphure fueloil. A day for a fue oil ship can be burning around 55K$ of fuel oil, with GNL low priced, you can burn 10K$, keeping 45K$ on pockect. This is for 100 ships, 4.5M$ advantage
by day to other liners in 2025. 365 days ... on over TEU capacity scenario this will be a ace in the hole for ZIM to continue winning money. A typical liner owning its ships need 10 to 15 years to migrate to GNL or metanol
but ZIM can do this in some years for a lot of its fleet, as old rented ships using low sulphure fuel oil are giving back to Danaos or original owner renting the ship to ZIM for line container service, so we have an
agile actor in the sector that can operate as a the low cost liner in 2025, after rejecting old high price rented ships along the 2021 2022
boom passing to new GNL powered new ships rentered at low prices in the 2023 bear shipping market. Price for renting ships can be see at Harpex, going up also, but in slowly mode. The GNL advantage in the new rented
fleet beeing low cost liner will protect ZIM margins in the future keeping a little marine moat. Hamas-Israel War, long Red Sea Huties conflict and one el niño climate year with very low raining at Panama canal
have alined to disturb marine traffic adding NauticMiles to world fleet and convert a 2024 terrible year for ZIM in one of the best years while the company is converting the fleet to low cost GNL powered .
The calm before the storm ... next weeks.
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